When Political Winds Shift: Ernst’s Surprise Decision Rocks Iowa Politics
Iowa Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has decided not to seek reelection to a third term, sources familiar with her decision confirmed Thursday, creating an unexpected opening in what was once considered a safe Republican seat. The combat veteran and Iowa’s first woman elected to Congress is expected to make the announcement next week, according to multiple news outlets.
Ernst’s decision comes amid troubling poll numbers and internal party pressures that have made her political future increasingly uncertain. Recent polling shows her struggling against multiple Democratic challengers, with state Senator Zach Wahls actually leading her in informed voter matchups—a striking reversal in traditionally red Iowa.
The Numbers Tell a Concerning Story
The political math that likely influenced Ernst’s decision paints a clear picture. A Public Policy Polling survey released last week showed Ernst with a devastating -13 net favorability rating, with only 37% of Iowa voters approving of her performance while 50% disapprove.
More troubling for Republicans, the same poll showed Democratic state Senator Zach Wahls leading Ernst 45% to 43% when voters received information about both candidates. Even when respondents knew only the candidates’ names, Ernst’s lead over Wahls was just one percentage point—hardly the commanding advantage Republicans would expect in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
A Career Built on Conservative Outsider Appeal
Ernst, 55, first captured national attention in 2014 with her memorable campaign ad about castrating pigs, promising to “make ’em squeal” in Washington. The Iraq War combat veteran and former Army National Guard member rode the tea party wave to victory in what was then seen as a competitive open seat.
Her rise through Republican ranks seemed meteoric. Ernst served in the No. 3 spot in Senate GOP leadership and was considered a potential vice presidential contender during Trump’s first White House run. She won reelection in 2020 by more than 6 percentage points, suggesting political durability in an increasingly Republican state.
When “We All Are Going to Die” Became a Political Problem
Ernst’s troubles began crystallizing at a May town hall in Butler County, where her response to concerns about Medicaid cuts under Trump’s legislation created a political firestorm. When a constituent worried that people would die without healthcare coverage, Ernst replied, “People are not — well, we all are going to die”.
The comment went viral and became a rallying cry for Democrats. According to the June Public Policy Polling survey, 69% of Iowa voters had heard about Ernst’s statement, and 37% said it made them less likely to support her in 2026.
This wasn’t Ernst’s only recent political stumble. She faced significant pressure from Trump supporters over her initial hesitance to support Pete Hegseth’s nomination as Defense Secretary, despite her expertise on military sexual assault issues.
Democrats See Opening in Red State Territory
Ernst’s departure creates the kind of opportunity Democrats desperately need as they work to reclaim the Senate majority. Republicans currently control the chamber 53-47, and Democrats face a challenging map in 2026.
Multiple Democrats have already launched campaigns for Ernst’s seat. Zach Wahls, who represents Iowa City-area districts in the state Senate, appears to be the early frontrunner based on recent polling. Other candidates include Nathan Sage, a veteran and former Knoxville Chamber of Commerce executive director; Jackie Norris, Des Moines School Board chairwoman; and state Representative Josh Turek.
“Just weeks after launching his campaign, Josh is already in striking distance of defeating Joni Ernst,” said Brendan Koch, campaign manager for Turek, as reported by Newsweek.
The Broader Republican Challenge
Ernst’s retirement decision reflects broader challenges facing Republicans in an era of Trump-dominated politics. Like retiring Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, she represents a generation of Republican senators who’ve found themselves caught between traditional conservative principles and Trump’s demands for absolute loyalty.
Her struggles also highlight how Trump’s polarizing presidency continues to affect down-ballot Republicans, even in states he won decisively. Iowa, once a competitive swing state that elected Democrats Tom Harkin and Tom Vilsack to statewide office, has shifted significantly rightward over the past decade.
What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
Ernst’s departure opens up a potentially expensive primary battle among Iowa Republicans. Potential candidates could include Representatives Ashley Hinson, Zach Nunn, or Mariannette Miller-Meeks, though none have announced intentions yet. NATO Ambassador Matt Whitaker is also reportedly considering a run.
For Democrats, this represents their best pickup opportunity in a red state since Joe Manchin’s retirement in West Virginia created a certain GOP gain. While Iowa remains challenging territory for Democrats, the combination of Ernst’s declining popularity and a potentially crowded Republican primary could create the perfect storm for an upset.
The race will also test whether Iowa’s rightward trend is permanent or if the right Democratic candidate with the right message can still compete statewide. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008, making this their highest-profile test of political relevance in the state.
A Veteran’s Exit Strategy
For Ernst personally, the decision represents a pragmatic assessment of political reality. Rather than face a potentially difficult reelection campaign with uncertain outcomes, she’s choosing to leave on her own terms while preserving her reputation as a conservative pioneer and military advocate.
Her departure also creates opportunities for her to pursue other roles, potentially in a future Republican administration or in the private sector, where her military background and legislative experience would be valuable.
The Path Forward
As Republicans work to maintain their Senate majority and Democrats seek pickup opportunities wherever they can find them, Ernst’s retirement transforms Iowa from a likely Republican hold to a genuine battleground. The outcome could depend on factors ranging from Trump’s 2026 political standing to the economy’s performance leading up to the election.
For Iowa voters, Ernst’s departure closes a chapter on a political career that broke significant barriers while reflecting the broader tensions within modern Republican politics. Her replacement, whether Republican or Democratic, will inherit a state that’s changed dramatically over the past decade and continues evolving.
The real question now isn’t whether Ernst will run again—that decision is made. It’s whether Iowa remains the reliably Republican state it’s become, or if the right Democratic candidate can prove that political tides can still turn, even in the reddest corners of America’s heartland.
