Bathroom Crisis Looms: How Trump’s Tariffs Could Empty America’s Toilet Paper Aisles
Suzano SA, the world’s largest pulp exporter, warns of supply disruptions as trade policies impact essential household goods
The specter of empty toilet paper shelves—a traumatic memory from the early pandemic days—may soon return to haunt American households. Brazil’s Suzano SA, the world’s largest exporter of pulp used in toilet paper production, has issued a concerning update about potential shortages due to recent trade policies.
Supply Chain Under Pressure
According to recent reports, Suzano SA has experienced a 20% drop in U.S.-bound exports in April compared to the same period last year. The Brazilian company, which produces bleached hardwood pulp essential for manufacturing toilet paper and other hygiene products, attributes this decline directly to tariffs imposed under President Trump’s trade policies.
“In response to the tariffs, we’ve had to pass increased costs on to US buyers,” João Alberto de Abreu, Suzano’s chief executive, told Bloomberg News. This cost increase threatens to disrupt the supply chain for one of America’s most essential household items.
Brazil, like most U.S. trading partners except China, currently faces a 10% universal tariff on exports. For specialized materials like pulp, these additional costs create ripple effects throughout the supply chain.
What This Means for Your Household Budget
For the average American family, these trade tensions could soon translate to:
- Higher prices for toilet paper and paper towels
- Potential scarcity on store shelves
- The need to comparison shop across multiple retailers
- Possible limits on purchases per customer if shortages worsen
Industry analysts note that while current store shelves remain stocked, the paper supply chain is particularly vulnerable to disruption. Even minor stockpiling by concerned consumers could quickly deplete available inventory.
“Pulp isn’t just another commodity,” Abreu emphasized. “It’s at the heart of some of the most essential products we use every day.”
Echoes of 2020 Shortages
The warning evokes uncomfortable memories of 2020, when pandemic-related panic buying emptied toilet paper aisles nationwide. That experience remains fresh in consumers’ minds, potentially triggering preemptive stockpiling that could exacerbate supply issues.
While the current situation differs from pandemic-era disruptions, the end result—empty shelves—could be similar if trade tensions continue to escalate.
Broader Economic Implications
Suzano’s warning highlights a concerning trend: trade disputes previously focused on high-tech or luxury goods are increasingly affecting basic necessities. Brazil, one of the world’s largest producers of pulp, has become a focal point in the latest trade skirmish.
Last month, Apollo Global Management warned that U.S. store shelves could be empty within weeks due to Trump’s steep tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially triggering a recession by summer. Their chief economist outlined a timeline showing how supply chain disruptions could lead to product shortages, retail slowdowns, and layoffs in both trucking and retail sectors.
What Consumers Can Do
While the situation develops, financial experts recommend:
- Avoid panic buying, which worsens shortages
- Consider alternative products when possible
- Budget for potential price increases on paper goods
- Stay informed about trade developments that may affect essential products
The São Paulo-based company warns that continued trade barriers could worsen supply chain tensions and push prices even higher. For now, Americans should prepare for potential disruptions while hoping that trade negotiations prevent a full-blown bathroom crisis.
